ISSN 3062-262X

AI-Driven Productivity and Macroeconomic Stability: Growth Engine or Source of Systemic Risk?

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Sirine Sabah, Khaled Tartar

Abstract

Artificial intelligence (AI) is increasingly viewed as a major source of productivity growth, yet its broader macroeconomic implications remain uncertain. This paper examines whether AI-driven productivity gains can coexist with macroeconomic and financial stability. Rather than treating AI as a neutral technological improvement, the study conceptualizes it as a non-neutral technological shock affecting productivity, income distribution, market concentration, aggregate demand, and systemic financial risk. The paper develops an integrated analytical framework linking these channels and complements it with a stylized dynamic model and numerical simulations under alternative AI-adoption scenarios. The results illustrate that stronger AI adoption can generate substantial productivity gains while simultaneously reducing the labor share and increasing systemic financial risk when technological benefits are unevenly distributed and financial vulnerabilities accumulate. However, this relationship is not deterministic: institutional and regulatory stabilization can significantly mitigate these adverse effects. The central finding is therefore that AI-driven productivity growth and macro-financial stability are compatible, but their coexistence is conditional rather than automatic. The long-run effects of AI depend critically on the diffusion of productivity gains, income distribution, market structure, and the capacity of institutions and financial regulation to adapt to technological transformation.

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